Nature of market for 1:6 scale figures

[lerath666]

A closer look would be McFarlanes series, especially Spawn series. Even for a much cheaper line it got real cold due to over-release and people got bored.

Or Medicom Kubrick scene, the Be@rbrick seems to be riding on pop culture if not it'd be stone cold by now.

Somehow Rah still manage to stay hot because they release figures from different genre and not having a tight schedule.

However you look at Sideshow Premium Format, the number of Statues they came out is pretty crazy yet people still buying them.

Also Hasbro Star War 3.75" line never gets cold even though they've been releasing like 10 versions of each characters and releasing any characters they can find. So maybe Sideshow 12" lines can maintain the same heat.

Barbie dolls still have quite some followers even though it's been like what 60 years?

you make some valid points, but you've also got to take into account rising prices and economic climate.

 

[brebro]

As someone who got back into action figures due to the late 90s/early 2000s World of Simpsons figures and playsets by Playmates, I know all too well how something that can be so hot at the time (HOW much did I pay for a red dress Lisa Simpson on Ebay????) can a few years later be pretty much worthless when the demand dies down. Of course, the appeal of Hot Toys (realistic likenesses and costumes and character selection) is a selling point in it's own right, so the figures would still objectively have value, but the crazy secondary market resale value will ultimately have to go down.

 

[lerath666]

Exactly. That's more or less what I was reffering to.

In addition, I think we might see a slow scaling back of hot toys prices to sideshow levels shortly after.

Meaning that 179-200 becoming the " normal" and not seeing as many go over that threshold.

this might lead to a cutting back of accessories, we will see.

 

[potato]

Retail price will never drop due to inflation, cost of material, labor, shipping, even salary from the sculptors & tailors keep rising.

The best it can do is reduce the gap between retail price & reseller price to make reseller price more realistic. The prices you see on ebay, for most of the recent release HT, it's not that there is no stock, but simply because ebay fees so high and offer little protection to seller that many sellers gave up on ebay, so leaves a few sellers expecting unrealistic prices, and since there's only so many sellers selling on ebay, their prices become a reference for other non-ebay sellers.

The trend now seems to be that if 1/6 is getting too expensive, they will slowly cut down the line and move to 1/12, at the price of where 1/6 started.

If you look at Japan's Chogokin line, that is what happened. It was super hot since early 2000's, but died down because Bandai kept releasing so many versions of same robot and focusing on bigger robots that used to be $100, to whopping $250. Price now for a small robot is around the same price as a big robot back in those days. So most people can't afford them and stopped the hobby, you still see ebay sellers selling at high price because not many buyers = not many 2nd hand units, and Bandai reduced their production run to much lower volume, now they switched from standard Size to smaller size Chogokin, selling at the price when standard size Robots were 10 years back.

3A is doing it right now, notice actions figures are getting smaller and smaller, in order to keep the price at where it was? While the standard size figures gets more and more expensive.

 

[lerath666]

Not true that prices will never fall. Inflation and deflation are both part of the economic cycle. While it is true that prices will NEVER go back to the 80-119 range, a smaller scaling back to 180-200 being the norm is far more likely, IF those in the 220-250+ range are poorer than normal sellers.

A JUMP up, then a small scaling back is the way that prices tend to climb.

MASSIVE scaling back DOES happen, but it requires a full on collapse of the market to do so.
The Trend in the American housing market is an excellent example of this.

When dealing with luxury, non-essential items like collectables, it's rare. But it CAN happen WHEN the " bandwagoners" move on. Which, given by the recentish trends of people dumping massive ammounts of figures on the for sale threads at less than retail, or significantly less than current aftermarket, seems to be happening.

all in all, it's when the majority of the product consumers fails to find the percieved value = to or > than the price asked.

And in the current Economic climate, it's not a question of if, but rather When.

 

[potato]

Unless they have a breakthrough in technology that allows them to manufacture products at lower cost, like computer technology, chances of deflation on prices is like 1%. That is how financial & economy folks calculate their future value. But cost like wage will always increase.

Food, House, Fuel, Electric & Water bills, every year they increase and not once they decreased (not taking into account short term fluctuations).

You will never see Gucci, Rolex or Ferrari drop their price, however in order to attract lower level customers they start to come up with entry level products. This is why you start seeing 1/12 scales of 1/6 figures.

Not true that prices will never fall. Inflation and deflation are both part of the economic cycle. While it is true that prices will NEVER go back to the 80-119 range, a smaller scaling back to 180-200 being the norm is far more likely, IF those in the 220-250+ range are poorer than normal sellers.

 

[badvoc]

Unless they have a breakthrough in technology that allows them to manufacture products at lower cost, like computer technology, chances of deflation on prices is like 1%. That is how financial & economy folks calculate their future value. But cost like wage will always increase.

Food, House, Fuel, Electric & Water bills, every year they increase and not once they decreased (not taking into account short term fluctuations).

You will never see Gucci, Rolex or Ferrari drop their price, however in order to attract lower level customers they start to come up with entry level products. This is why you start seeing 1/12 scales of 1/6 figures.

Your examples of Gucci, Rolex or Ferrari - consumers pay a premium for a brand, that's all. They are all luxury items at upmarket prices, which narrows their market.

Ferrari for example have a subsidiary, FAIT which caters for lower end market.

As for technology, I expect 3D printing to have a massive impact on 1/6 scale, and I fully expect smaller cottage industry types to come into the market in the next few years. Only yesterday a 3D scanner was released at £900 - not cheap certainly but as with all new technologies expect this to drop sharply in the future.

 

[potato]

Aren't HT & EB & Medicom considered high end collectibles?

No need to wait for 3D tech, smaller companies esp in China has already started up their production via simple molding & casting.

Obviously using 3D printing can still be expensive, when you mass produce them, and the material used for 3D printing is still not convincing enough to say it is durable.

But non the less, when 3D printing become something as common as laser printers, most people should be able to print out their own stuffs with ready made models or templates just like printing posters.

But as with 2D printing, you still need a professional printer & materials to have good results.

DIY Bootlegs for all kinds of stuff will be as common as ripping videos of a DVD/Bluray.

People might just collect model files & save if in their pc and print those that they want instead.

Your examples of Gucci, Rolex or Ferrari - consumers pay a premium for a brand, that's all. They are all luxury items at upmarket prices, which narrows their market.

Ferrari for example have a subsidiary, FAIT which caters for lower end market.

As for technology, I expect 3D printing to have a massive impact on 1/6 scale, and I fully expect smaller cottage industry types to come into the market in the next few years. Only yesterday a 3D scanner was released at £900 - not cheap certainly but as with all new technologies expect this to drop sharply in the future.

 

[lerath666]

Unless they have a breakthrough in technology that allows them to manufacture products at lower cost, .

Bananna Based Resins are similar to plastic, and cheaper. And a big new thing.

And Costs DO go down, when enough people stop buying, so that the company's only choice is to go out of buisness, or reduce prices.

I'm not saying it WILL happen. Only that it may, and I think it is likely that it MIGHT.

 

[lerath666]

.

Aren't HT & EB & Medicom considered high end collectibles?

But as with 2D printing, you still need a professional printer & materials to have good results.

.

True, and the paton that makes High end 3d printers terribly expensive is about to expire, which will destroy the monoply that the manufacturer of such 3d printers holds. once that happens , high quality 3d printers will become dramaticly more affordable in the next few years.


On the high end collectables thing, Yes, they are, but it's also a VERY NICHE market.

High end Cars, and watches have a wider appeal than high end action figures.

To joe average, owning a high end rediculously expensive car or watch makes you a superstar.

TO many people, owning rediculously expensive toys makes you at best excentric, or at worst a weirdo.

In short, the appeal to people who can't afford it is minimal.

 

[potato]

When sales drop, companies whom wants to continue will:

1.Increase price per unit while reducing production volume to maximize profit per unit, reducing risk of dead stock while at the mean time maintain certain demand & increase the holding value of each unit due to reduce number of units.

2.Reduce/cut the original line & come up with less superior products of original line to attract buyers with lower pricing. For example from 1/6 to 1/12, from 6" to 3.75", from GT to Executive Compact.

Unless it's something that became obsolete that they have to dump their product at below cost, like technology stuffs.

Cost hardly go down, even with Banana tech, chances are the patent, tech experience etc will blow the cost up for the 1st 5 years. Not sure about Banana resin but most machinery, like 3D printer cost is one thing, but with the wrong investment or better printers coming out means those invested early lose alot because they paid much more for the earlier printers and had to buy newer ones that had their problems solved and more efficient. That is why companies choose very carefully when it comes to new machinery investments. Only those big firms would go ahead while smaller companies will sit back and observe.

Bananna Based Resins are similar to plastic, and cheaper. And a big new thing.

And Costs DO go down, when enough people stop buying, so that the company's only choice is to go out of buisness, or reduce prices.

I'm not saying it WILL happen. Only that it may, and I think it is likely that it MIGHT.

 

[potato]

Guess that depends on which era, there were those days where no adults collect toys & toys are meant for kids.

But then those kids grow up buying toys and some never stopped, as such turns out the market we see today.

So you'll never know one day owning a gold plated ultraman would be the superstar thing to do.

So how we educate our kids is important, some successful people never buy toys or kiddy stuffs to their kids, and reward them with grown up stuffs like supercars (even if they can't drive), rolex, diamonds & jewels and suit them up to be the future CEO. While some kids just have problem getting themselves fed.

High end Cars, and watches have a wider appeal than high end action figures.

To joe average, owning a high end rediculously expensive car or watch makes you a superstar.

TO many people, owning rediculously expensive toys makes you at best excentric, or at worst a weirdo.

In short, the appeal to people who can't afford it is minimal.

 

[Mr Walker]

You know how to recognise you're in bubble territory?

It's when everyone is telling you that these things never fall in value. You can't lose!

 

[lerath666]

You know how to recognise you're in bubble territory?

It's when everyone is telling you that these things never fall in value. You can't lose!

 

[The Chev]

I'm torn a little. On one hand It's nice to know the figures I have could get me my money back easily on the secondary market if I ever needed to go that route. However, it would be nice if prices went down some cause there're a number of figures I'd like to add to my collection, but the prices are Outrageous.

I mean, I would like to be able to buy a MMS Dutch and not have to pay 4x what it's original retail value is, especially if it's used. Same goes with a Police Uniform Leon Kennedy, which is even more expensive.

I just remember in the late 90's a number of my baseball cards were worth a few hundred bucks, and now I see them on ebay and in collectible shops for 5 dollars.

 

[potato]

Last time people buy stuffs they like which they can afford. Nowadays it feels more like an investment. I like this, but should i preorder, buy it now or wait later? Instead of focusing on the item we focus on the price & value. Taking some fun away.

I'm torn a little. On one hand It's nice to know the figures I have could get me my money back easily on the secondary market if I ever needed to go that route. However, it would be nice if prices went down some cause there're a number of figures I'd like to add to my collection, but the prices are Outrageous.

I mean, I would like to be able to buy a MMS Dutch and not have to pay 4x what it's original retail value is, especially if it's used. Same goes with a Police Uniform Leon Kennedy, which is even more expensive.

I just remember in the late 90's a number of my baseball cards were worth a few hundred bucks, and now I see them on ebay and in collectible shops for 5 dollars.

 

[The Chev]

Last time people buy stuffs they like which they can afford. Nowadays it feels more like an investment. I like this, but should i preorder, buy it now or wait later? Instead of focusing on the item we focus on the price & value. Taking some fun away.

Exactly. It's getting the point where I may have to decide to either just get new stuff, or get the older figures I want. It's getting really expensive to do both at this point and time.

 

[lerath666]

Exactly. It's getting the point where I may have to decide to either just get new stuff, or get the older figures I want. It's getting really expensive to do both at this point and time.

And it's creeping towards a point where the fun will be gone. Once that happens, people will start quitting the hobby en-mass ( which has already started, look at the for sale section of any 1/6th board, including this one) and once that starts in full swing, one of two things will happen.




1) the BIG BOY's of 1/6 will either find a way to reduce their prices to entice more overall sales

2) the big boys will dry up and die, leaving way for smaller companies to fill those gaps, such as asmus toys for example.

1/6th has been around for ages. It's not going anywhere. and people who collect it will not readily switch to another scale. some will, but many of those may be bandwagoners in the first place. The failed expierement of the 1/4th scale figures from hot toys is a prime example.

What the market CAN'T sustain, and the current prices. It's Not JUST manufacturing costs driving it up. Not when Asmus can make figures like their Witch king, and Gothimog for 149-169. OR the Sub zero figure.

 

[The Chev]

And it's creeping towards a point where the fun will be gone. Once that happens, people will start quitting the hobby en-mass ( which has already started, look at the for sale section of any 1/6th board, including this one) and once that starts in full swing, one of two things will happen.




1) the BIG BOY's of 1/6 will either find a way to reduce their prices to entice more overall sales

2) the big boys will dry up and die, leaving way for smaller companies to fill those gaps, such as asmus toys for example.

1/6th has been around for ages. It's not going anywhere. and people who collect it will not readily switch to another scale. some will, but many of those may be bandwagoners in the first place. The failed expierement of the 1/4th scale figures from hot toys is a prime example.

What the market CAN'T sustain, and the current prices. It's Not JUST manufacturing costs driving it up. Not when Asmus can make figures like their Witch king, and Gothimog for 149-169. OR the Sub zero figure.

Yeah, there's a ton of the smaller companies that I still need to collect from. It's nice to know that 1/6 won't go away and I never thought it would. I'm not a band wagoner, despite only getting into it last march. I may be newer but I have a varied collection already. Sci-fi, Horror, Historical, and Movie Based. I'm more excited for the Witch-King, Gothmog, and Sub-Zero than Robocop. I can buy those and not feel bad cause I spent almost 300 on one figure.

 

[potato]

1/12 Smaller scale figures has already resurface after getting taken over by 1/6. When 1/6 came to mainstream it blows the 1/12 away in terms of size, price & details, but 1/12 nowadays are as detailed as their 1/6 counterparts and offering much cheaper price (well, as cheap as 1/6 were 1st introduced that is). It is starting to gain some collectors:

1.1/6 fans who wants to get the 1/12 version to be complete.
2.1/6 fans who doesn't want to spent so much money & so much time & effort to hunt sold out figures
3.Fans who want to collect but don't have the space
4.Younger fans who sees the smaller scaled 1/12 as a toy you can play around instead.

It happened to Chogokin, will happen to 1/6, not to say 1/6 will die down, but they will shift up to even higher markets, less releases & even less production number.

1/12 is where the money will go in maybe 2-3 years time.