I think it's safe to say if he doesn't win the Oscar it would be a massive upset.
but as a general audience member, his performance wasn't the only good thing about the movie.
I wonder who would be his acceptor for the Oscars? Would his mom/dad be there? Its cool to have Nolan or someone like that for these other awards but the Oscars is the big one.
It should be someone tied to the film who can speak to the performance though. Even though part of it all is missing a great actor, the award is for what he achieved in the Dark Knight, no one is better to comment on what he brought to the table than Nolan or even Bale could speak to working with him.
The only thing dissappointing to me is how often only Heath's getting nods. Yes he did great, and maybe from a film critics perspective he's the only thing worth awarding, but as a general audience member, his performance wasn't the only good thing about the movie.
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